#28. 뜨거운 감자. SMIC

 

1. 기업개요

 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation SMIC, 중국어로는 中芯国际集成电路制造有限公司 (중심국제집성전로제조유한공사), 中芯国际(중신궈지)는 2000년 4월 3일 설립된 반도체 위탁제조(파운드리)기업으로, 본사는 중국 상하이에 위치하고 있다.

 

SMIC는 중국 본토에서 가장 큰 파운드리 기업이자, 2021년 기준 세계 파운드리 시장 점유율 5위(5.3%)의 기업이다.

 

2022년 3월 30일 SMIC가 발표한 사업보고서에 따르면 SMIC의 2021년 매출액은 전년 대비 약 39.3% 증가한 54억 4,300만 달러(약 6조 6,400억 원), 당기순이익은 전년 대비 약 138% 증가한 17억 달러(약 2조 740억 원) 이다.

2021년 매출 중 지역별 매출비중으로는 중국과 홍콩 64%, 북미 22.3%, 유럽과 아시아 13.7% 이었고, 제품별 매출비중은 스마트폰용 32.2%, 소비가전용 23.5%, 스마트가구용 12.8%, 기타 31.5% 이었다.

 

2. 기업 정리 (eng)

Summary

• U.S. sanctions against China's SMIC haven't worked in the last 18 months as SMIC moves to the 7nm node using DUV lithography.
• Assuming SMIC makes 7nm logic chips instead of 28nm at its new fabs, Applied Materials will generate net revenues of just $14 million.
• Other equipment suppliers will see a tailwind from SMIC’s transition including Lam Research (+$962 million) and ASML (+$4,128 million).
• Applied's minimal net gain means further loss of market share to competitors.
• The net gain in revenues from SMIC will move ASML to the top of the global equipment market in 2022.
• This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Semiconductor Deep Dive.

SMIC Moving To 7nm Without EUV

SMIC is the target of U.S. sanctions by U.S. Commerce Department because of SMIC’s perceived relationship to the Chinese military. But the damage to SMIC was accomplished in 2020 when ASML (ASML) was prevented from selling its EUV lithography equipment to China.

But SMIC has moved beyond 14nm. My analysis shows that SMIC is in production on its N+2 node, equivalent to the 7nm node and comparable to TSMC (TSM). And it was accomplished without the use of EUV lithography, just as TSMC did with its first generation 7nm node (N7) introduced in 2018.

Instead of SMIC manufacturing 28nm logic chips at its new fabs in Shanghai and Shenzen China, SMIC has moved first to its N+1 node (8nm equivalent) and then N+2 node. Moving to a smaller node requires a different semiconductor processing equipment product mix, benefiting equipment suppliers. This is not the case:

• Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) will benefit from the transition from 28nm to N+2 for its deposition, CMP, and implant markets and generate net revenues of $14 million.
• Lam Research (LRCX) will benefit from the transition from 28nm to N+2 for its etch, clean, and plasma strip markets and generate net revenues of $962 million.
• ASML, despite the loss of EUV sales for the transition, will generate net revenues of $4,128 million

Equally important, ASML, which was the No. 2 equipment supplier to AMAT in 2021 by just $1.5 billion, should move to the top of the global semiconductor equipment market in 2022 on the basis of the SMIC transition. These analyses are detailed below.

 

다음 글에서는 TSMC를 약 5개에 걸쳐 리뷰할 예정이다. 너무 길고 깊은 내용이라 공부가 시급하다..